Wheelin' and Dealin'

 with Dave Boyce

There has been a recent flurry of trade activity in the FBL, which gives me a chance to pick apart teams' strageties to this point. We'll figure out who is looking to make that playoff run, and who is looking to mail it in until next year.

Baltimore traded Amare Stoudemire (PF/C) to Maine for Maine's 2003 5th round draft pick.
At this point I'm not totally sure whether or not the Alibi's are looking towards next year, or making a run.  The Stoudemire trade deepened their draft board, but he has been a stud as of late and makes you wonder whether Baltimore will regret this during their battle for playoff positioning in the very deep East. 

Concrete traded Stephon Marbury (PG) to Maine for Maine's 2003 1st and 2nd round draft picks.
Maine continues to deal away draft picks for talent at this point.  They are now without their 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th picks for next year. This seems to mean Maine is saying FBL Championship or bust.  They will obviously be very thin during next year's draft.

3 way trade: Baltimore receives Baron Davis (PG) and Michael Redd (SG). Seattle receives Sam Cassell (PG) and Troy Murphy (SF/PF). San Diego recieves Michael Finley (SG/SF) and Baltimore's 2003 4th round draft pick.

This is the most complex of the recent trades.  Let's break it down team by team.  Baltimore gives up Sam Cassell and a 4th round pick, and receive in return Baron Davis and Michael Redd.  The Alibi's lose a little at the point, but they trade a 4th round pick for one of the best bench players in the league right now.  For the Alibi's, I wouldn't call it a wash, but it focuses their strength's where they need it: the bench.   Seattle gives up Michael Finley and Michael Redd and gets Sam Cassell and Troy Murphy.  According to PAR, Seattle improves with the Finley for Cassell swap, and now has a legitamate PG for the first time this year.  The Redd for Troy Murphy swap is almost a wash except for the fact that it gives Seattle a starting SF to play in place of Finley.  This trade makes it so the Soundwaves can have their best five players in the starting lineup rather than having Michael Redd being stuck behind Ray Allen all year long, when he's scoring more than their PG's.  San Diego, maybe the deepest FBL team, gives up Baron Davis and Troy Murphy and gets back Michael Finley and a 4th rounder.  The Zoo uses its main strenght, depth, in order to acquire another superstar.  They gain PAR in the Davis for Finley swap and they move a player, Murphy, that was stuck behind the other SF's on the squad.  They not only make a move that makes sense, but gain a pick next year.  All in all, this trade works for all three teams.

Washington traded Glenn Robinson (SF) to San Diego for Rip Hamilton (SG/SF) and San Diego's 2003 3rd round draft pick.
After acquiring Finley (who can play SG), the Zoo gets even better by sending away a young talent and a pick (since they acquired one in the three way, they could afford to give up without changing their draft board too much) and acquired the wiley jump-shooting veteran, Glenn Robinson.  This gives the Zoo, probably the best starting five in the league, now with Terry at PG, Finley, Robinson, Malone and Brand.  Wow, that's a good team.

This is so much fun, just wait until the trading deadline.  I'll be back before then, with the swirling rumors.

This being the inaugural season of the reborn FBL, teams have only had a brief time to formulate their strategies and learn to work as a team. Its quite possible we'll see a lot of ugly play the first few weeks as teammates stop being polite and start getting real. Expect a lot of fouls, a lot of missed baskets, and quite possibly a lot of trips to and from the team physicians.

While the uncertainty of brand new teams makes things a bit tough to predict, here are some of the things you can expect from around the league:

Yao Ming will be decent. He won't be a star, but he showed a lot of touch on his jump shot in the preseason and it looks like hes smart enough to pick up FBL-style offense and defense. Hes not going to have a Tim Duncan-esque impact, but Yao will produce enough to put the Monarchs in contention and will fight for a contract extension at the end of the year.

Most of the other centers in the East will be better. Of course, when those centers are named Duncan, O'Neal, Howard or LaFrentz its not hard to see why. The East is solid in the pivot, which looks like the main difference between the two conferences. Come playoff time, youll see the right-coasters dumping it in to their big men and posting up their smaller, quicker opponents from the West.

Grant Hill is healthy, which is icing on the cake. Duncan is certain to play well, but the guy to really watch is Shareef Abdur-Rahim, who could be a scoring machine at power forward with his quickness advantage.

Seattle and San Diego have a lot to cheer about. Both teams upgraded with the Finley deal. Seattle now gives Ray Allen a scoring partner, while Jason Terry fills out the best backcourt in the West.

At least Vegas did one thing right. They took Antoine Walker. Centers are always at a premium, but this year there also seems to be a shortage of good power forwards. After you talk about Walker, Chris Webber, Rasheed Wallace, Abdur-Rahim, and Antawn Jamison, you have to acknowledge that most of the 4's in this league come with major question marks, either due to injury, inexperience, too much experience in Karl Malones case, or lack of scoring presence.

My favorite backcourts. Washington wins this one hands down. Payton and Iverson will likely lead the pack in scoring, and will certainly lead in trash-talking. Marbury and McGrady would be a close second if Stephon were healthy enough to insure hed be playing the entire year, and Baron Davis and Jason Terry may be the best of the bunch in a couple years.

My favorite frontcourts. 1) Maine, 2) New York, 3) Seattle. When push comes to shove, the frontcourts will be the big difference between these teams and the competition.

My favorite uniforms. Seattle's. Because let's face itRay Allen looks good in anything.

Best Dance Teams (Dont Call Them Cheerleaders). Well, Atlanta has put together a great squad of young white women to perform for their players and the crowds. San Diego also has a killer squad full of Baywatch casting casualties, but perhaps the most impressive is Vegas' team of showgirls and their elaborate costuming work. The pyrotechnics pale in comparison to the loose laws regarding topless dance in Vegas stadiums. As for the worst squads, the Concrete Convicts seem to have culled theirs from a crystal meth rehab center. I swear I saw one of the girls looking for a good vein on the sidelines.

Team analyses:

1) Maine Competition

2) New York Knights

3) Washington Monarchs

4) Atlanta Sambos

5) Baltimore Alibis

6) Boston Massacre

1) Seattle Soundwaves

2) San Diego Zoo

3) Concrete Convicts

4) Astoria Chunks

5) San Francisco All-Stars

6) Las Vegas Gamblers

The East:

Maine Competition: Maine has put together a dazzling array of talent with their starting five. Grant Hill looks like the Grant Hill of old, and that's good news for coach Marty McGuinness, who has promised to terrorize opposing teams with a high-scoring athletic team. While the bench isn't deep, it's full of young, hungry players like Tyson Chandler and Jason Richardson. Emmanuel Ginobilli might be one of the best late round picks of the draft and has a chance at posting some solid minutes off the bench.

New York Knights: For those who think that Grant Hill will only be a shadow of his former self, its hard to go wrong picking New York to win the division. What Juwan Howard, Chris Webber and Jamal Mashburn lack in size as the starting frontcourt they make up for in athleticism. Vince Carter and Allan Houston present serious match-up problems for the rest of the East Coast. You have to wonder, though, what Jason Zieger was thinking when he brought in All-Star pouters Derrick Coleman and Jeff McInnis and the fading Scottie Pippen.

Washington Monarchs: It'll be interesting to see what Rick Mahorn does with the hand he's been dealt by GM Jeff Zieger. On the one hand, you have Allen Iverson, Gary Payton and Glenn Robinson comprising what may easily be the best 1-2-3 combination in the league. So you'd think Zieger would put a premium on speed when he looked for big men, right? Well, instead this team drafted aging rebound-machine Antonio Davis, the large but untested Yao Ming, and clueless misanthrope Anthony Mason. Still, look for Mahorn to focus this team on playing tough defense and crashing the boards. If Yao can win a starting role, this team has enough to make the playoffs.

Atlanta Sambos: Surprised? Well, Atlanta may have to wait a couple years before it starts thinking championship, but the starting five should be competitive. Rasheed Wallace will fight it out for the title of second best PF in the East behind Chris Webber. Token white guy Raef LaFrentz will force opposing centers to guard him outside the paint, and once Mike Bibby returns, he'll provide a potent option to compliment the points factories of Paul Pierce and Cuttino Mobley.

Baltimore Alibis: Shaq and Jason Kidd on the same team? Sounds goodOf couse, then you get a look at the decidedly mediocre supporting cast and start thinking, "Shaq's toe better be ok." Tim Thomas will be a big contributor, but Kenyon Martin and Rashard Lewis will have to develop into complete players and Bonzi Wells will have to be a consistent force at the 2-guard. Too many questions, not enough answers.

Boston Massacre: Tyler Fleming put together a team full of swingmen. Sadly, that leaves him without a real presence at power forward. All I can say is that Jermaine O'Neal better stay healthy. It seems likely that Lamar Odom, Marcus Camby and Latrell Sprewell will all spend significant time on injured reserve. The question is will they return in time to make an impact in the playoff picture. After watching a whole lot of teams from the sidelines, my pom-poms tell me they won't. Francis will get plenty of points, but too many key players will spend more time in the training room than on the court.

The West:

Seattle Soundwaves: Vastly underrated by some of my colleagues, I'm a big believer in Seattle. Shaun Wyman has a balanced starting lineup that will outmatch most of the West Coast. Dirk Nowitzki and Ben Wallace provide scoring and rebounding, and it's hard to argue with the scoring potential on Michael Finley and Ray Allen. If Chauncey Billups proves to be a serviceable point guard and the bench provides them with something, this is the most dangerous team in the conference.

San Diego Zoo: San Diego might beat out Seattle for league-leadership, but Elton Brand is coming off of off-season surgery, and Karl Malone may very well start showing his age this year. If these are the only problems the team will face, they'll still be very good. Jason Terry and Baron Davis are developing into marquee players with the ability to score at will. The small forward, Rip Hamilton or Keith Van Horn, may determine how far this team can go.

Concrete Convicts: If they can stay out of jail, they can make the playoffs. T-Mac is going to be a superstar for this club. Pau Gasol is one of those European players you never heard of, but he'll provide another tough scoring presence. The trick is having a healthy Marbury, which may be a tall order as he mulls the prospects of surgery. Eddy Curry and Darius Miles will have to grow up fast here. The young bench could be a big lift or a bigger disappointment.

Astoria Chunks: Kobe Bryanttremendous. Antawn Jamisona force to be reckoned with. Andre Millera young assist machine. But then you look at Drew Gooden and Kurt Thomas and wonder if it's enough. Astoria will make the playoffs, but they look like a first-round victim. The lack of experience on the bench means this team is vulnerable.

San Francisco All-Stars: Once one of the greatest teams in the FBL, this team looks rather ordinary. Kevin Garnett is a franchise player, but the Admiral's mast isnt as imposing as it used to be, and the rest of the starters are a bit on the mediocre side. Still, the bench looks impressive. While other teams went for youth and potential after selecting a starting five, San Fran brought in potential superstar Shawn Marion, and potentially electrifying veterans Eddie Jones and Reggie Miller. Jones and Miller may be old, but they'll serve as offensive sparkplugs as either of them has the potential to put up 15 or 16 points off the bench on a good night.

Las Vegas Gamblers: The future is now for this team. Or maybe it really was six years ago. The troubling thing is that Jordan may barely play for this team. Michael probably should have stayed retired. Doug Christie was a born bench player. Unfortunately, the bench is already full of guys who are past their prime or never likely to have a prime. At least Antoine Walker and Steve Nash will be good and should stick around for next year's Gamblers squad.

Wheelin' and Dealin' with Dave Boyce

Just a handful of games into the new season, here are my thoughts on each team, and what teams can do to improve themselves by Wheelin' and Dealin'.

East Coast Conference

Boston Massacre 5-0

Everything is going right with Boston so far this season. Stevie has been the Franchise as advertised, and Jalen Rose has been a three category scorer with his PAR around 30.  Ricky Davis has helped bridge the gap nicely while Wally Szczerbiak is trying to get healthy.

Wheelin' and Dealin': Boston's only noticeable weakness is the power forward position, but they have enough talent to make a deal and fill this void if they choose to.

Maine Competition 4-1 

This team will stay atop the standings just as long as they stay healthy.  Grant Hill looks like himself (knock on wood) and once Shaq comes back from injury, Maine will have the scariest frontcourt in the entire FBL.  Not to mention that Troy Hudson has been one of the seasons surprises thus far.

Wheelin' and Dealin': No deals need to be made as long as Hill and ONeal are healthy.

Washington Monarchs 3-2

Glenn Robinson has carried this team to an above .500 start as he has been much better than expected. Allen Iverson and Gary Payton are the best backcourt in the league right now and they are making up for the lack of frontcourt strength.

Wheelin' and Dealin': Washington should use their bench strength in Artest and Marshall and try to obtain a better big man.

New York Knights 3-2 

Hot starts by James Posey and Gilbert Arenas have catapulted this team higher than you might expect. Webber and Mashburn have performed as expected, but the Knights could use a little more production out of the center position than what Juwan Howard is giving them.

Wheelin' and Dealin': Use Posey and Arenas' hot starts to your advantage and deal them while their stock is through the roof.  They could easily obtain a all-star caliber big man for a package including those guys right now.

Atlanta Sambos 2-3

Atlantas starting five hasn't been the problem; its been their non-starting bench. Both Derek Anderson and Mo Taylor have had injury problems that have prevented them from spending much time on the court and Raef LaFrentz's injury hasnt helped.   Eddie Griffin has been okay, but he is by no means picking up the slack of those injured players.

Wheelin' and Dealin':  When Mike Bibby returns, Atlantas problems should be for the most part solved. With Bibby producing at PG and Alvin Williams sliding to the bench, this team will be better all around. If Lafrentz doesnt return soon, then they might want to acquire a C.

Baltimore Alibis 0-5

Although Baltimore did help themselves by trading one of their point guards for Shawn Marion, they traded the wrong point guard.  A Sam Cassell offer could have gotten them almost as much as Marion, but without giving up a solid keeper player.  Even so, Baltimore will start winning some games after this trade, but the key to the season is Ilgauskas staying healthy.

Wheelin' and Dealin': Not much Baltimore can do but wait for his players to perform. He could try to get Jason Kidd back, but that's about it.

West Coast Conference

Astoria Chunks 4-1

Kobe Bryant has single-handedly brought this team to its 4-1 record.  Although rookie efforts of Caron Butler and Drew Gooden havent gone unnoticed, Kobe is the heart and soul of this team. Antawn Jamison might be the x-factor of deciding if this team is a contendor or a pretender.

Wheelin' and Dealin': Stay put for now, but if you run into injury problems, use your young guns in Butler and Gooden to lure all-star players from other teams, rather than giving up draft picks.

Concrete Convicts 3-2

The big three (Marbury, McGrady, Gasol) have performed as expected, but its the surprises like Kwame Brown and Shawn Bradley that have kept this team on the winning side. Darius Miles was a sleeper for a lot of GMs in the preseason, but he hasn't quite put up the numbers that people have expected early in the season.

Wheelin' and Dealin': The only real need for this team may be a starting center, to take some pressure off of the young Brown and let him play off the bench.

San Diego Zoo 2-3

My pick for the FBL finals in the West hasn't made me look good thus far, but with this lineup the Zoo are headed towards a top seed in the playoffs. Jason Terry, Baron Davis, and Rip Hamilton have all met or surpassed expectations, and if the veteran leader of this team, Karl Malone, can step up, they will vault over the Convicts and Chunks in no time.

Wheelin' and Dealin': The clock is ticking on Malone and if the clock strikes twelve, then it will be time to deal for a new starting PF.

San Francisco All-Stars 2-3

A great deal for the All-Stars solidified their starting lineup and immediately made them a playoff contender. Jason Kidd could lead this team for years to come, but will the lack of a big man hurt them in the long run?  You can expect them to make another deal once Nick Van Exel returns from surprise knee surgery.

Wheelin' and Dealin': San Fran should look to deal some of their bench help (Eddie Jones, Darrell Armstrong) and try to obtain some sort of big man that can put up points.

Las Vegas Gamblers 1-4

Michael Jordan's inconsistent play will hurt the Gamblers in the long run. Antoine Walker and Steve Nash are great but are not enough to lead this team into the playoffs. With the roster that Las Vegas has right now, it might not be too early to start gambling for some draft picks. I wont be surprised to see this team fall to the bottom of the division soon.

Wheelin' and Dealin': Deal anyone but Nash or Walker for draft picks now. Teams can use the likes Divac, Jordan, and Stockton, and the picks will pile up before you know it.

Seattle Soundwaves 1-4

Even with Dirk, Finley, and Allen performing well as the core of this team, most of the team has underachieved.  Mutombo, Wallace, Tinsley, Billups have all failed in their chances to start for the Soundwaves. Unless a few of these players start producing, Seattle's bench will stay thin. This team's roster looked great to start the season, but has looked far from great thus far.  

Wheelin' and Dealin': Seattle can either wait it out until next year or start making some moves to obtain a PG that can put up numbers.  If they don't do that, they'll be headed towards the Lebron James sweepstakes!

Neil Peterson's 2002-03 FBL Preview

Predicting fantasy sports is always a fool's mission, but especially so in the case of this year.  This is a new league, with new owners, a new scoring systemso many variables are at play.  And who knows which owners will prove to be adept acquirers of free agent talent?  Or which will fall prey to stupid trades? Or which will adroitly manage their lineups? Without an idea of what trends will emerge among these twelve franchises, a lot of what I have to say about 2002-03 involves shots in the dark.  I consider each team's projected lineup to be those players who should play the majority of the team's games and/or have the best projected PAR (points + assists + rebounds) average. 

East Coast Conference

1)       Maine Competition

2)       New York Knights

3)       Washington Monarchs

4)       Boston Massacre

5)       Baltimore Alibis

6)       Atlanta Sambos

West Coast Conference

1)       San Diego Zoo

2)       Astoria Chunks

3)       Concrete Convicts

4)       Seattle Soundwaves

5)       San Francisco All-Stars

6)       Las Vegas Gamblers

1^st Round

Maine over Boston, New York over Washington

San Diego over Seattle, Astoria over Concrete

Conference Championships

Maine over New York

San Diego over Astoria

FBL Finals

Maine over San Diego

Team Capsules

East Coast Conference

Maine Competition

Head Coach: Adam Fleming

Projected Scoring Avg: 123.24 ppg

Old FBL Team: Baltimore Bombers

Projected Lineup:

C- Tim Duncan

PF- Shareef Abdur-Rahim

SF- Grant Hill

SG- Jerry Stackhouse

PG- Sam Cassell

B1- Jason Richardson

B2- Tyson Chandler

B3- Zydrunas Ilgauskas

The team name is apt.  Will Hill stay healthy?  That will be the difference between whether this is a dominating team or merely a very good one.  Duncan is going to be such a huge factor, especially when the playoffs arrive, and I would be shocked if Maine wasn't there.  Sam Cassell was a great pickup in the middle rounds; if hes the weakest link in the starting lineup, that ain't too shabby.  Abdur-Rahim and Stackhouse were drafted at quality points too.  The bench is an underrated group of players who should come up big.   

New York Knights

Head Coach: Jason Zieger

Projected Scoring Avg: 121.08 ppg

Old FBL Team: New York Knights (1 championship)

Projected Lineup:

C- Juwan Howard

PF- Chris Webber

SF- Jamal Mashburn

SG- Vince Carter

PG- Allan Houston

B1- Jay Williams

B2- Brad Miller

B3- James Posey

Chris Webber was a 2^nd round steal.  He might just be their best playerJuwan Howard was another draft night coup.  Though behind Shaq and Duncan, he's the next best center in the conference.  The team is banking on some improved seasons from Vince Carter and Jamal Mashburn.  The point is the weak link.  Allan Houston's streakiness could affect the team.  Perhaps we'll see Jay Williams crack the starting five a couple of times.  Terrell Brandon's gimpy legs could be a problem, as he had been expected to be a key reserve.  Posey could be a key contributor.

Washington Monarchs

Head Coach: Jeff Zieger

Projected Scoring Avg: 114.09 ppg

Old FBL Team: South Florida Falcons (1 championship)

Projected Lineup:

C- Antonio Davis

PF- Anthony Mason

SF- Glenn Robinson

SG- Allen Iverson

PG- Gary Payton

B1- Jason Williams

B2- Yao Ming

B3- Cliff Robinson

Jeff Zieger's pair of tempestuous guards are the best in the league, but will they make for good team chemistry?  In any event, those two will come up with some big nights for Washington.  The frontcourt is the weak link.  Robinson will be a solid scorer, but Mason will be overmatched in PAR by almost every other team in the conference.  Antonio Davis is the underrated (and less heralded) center.  Ming is the unknown quantity; maybe Zieger's gamble on him will pay off, but until it does I think Yao may be best kept on the bench.

Boston Massacre

Head Coach: Tyler Fleming

Projected Scoring Avg: 110.19 ppg

Old FBL Team: Boston Massacre

Projected Lineup:

C- Jermaine O'Neal

PF- Marcus Camby

SF- Jalen Rose

SG- Wally Szcerbiak

PG- Steve Francis

B1- Latrell Sprewell

B2- Ricky Davis

B3- Lamar Odom

Francis is the franchise, but his supporting cast is nothing to ignore either.  Failure to draft a good power forward was a huge mistake, but when Camby is healthy again in December or January, they'll be solid in the post.  They have the most versatile team in the league, though.  Francis and Rose can be moved around the lineup so that Coach Tyler Fleming can experiment with different matchups.  If Szcerbiak isn't consistent, Sprewell will be a perfectly good alternative at the off-guard position.

Baltimore Alibis

Head Coach: Hendrik deBoer

Projected Scoring Avg: 109.26 ppg

New Owner to FBL

Projected Lineup:

C- Shaquille O'Neal

PF- Kenyon Martin

SF- Rashard Lewis

SG- Bonzi Wells

PG- Jason Kidd

B1- Brian Grant

B2- Tim Thomas

B3- Tony Parker

This team will revolve around Shaq and Kidd.  Period.  When they are on their game, the Alibis will have a definite edge.  If they aren't clicking, or if Shaq struggles with his ailing toe, back, etc., watch out.  Martin and Lewis are not the comedy duo, but their PAR production on some nights just might be something to laugh at.  Bonzi Wells should be a decent off-guard, and he'd better be, because the depth behind him is questionable.  The trade for Tim Thomas helped.  If Martin doesn't cut it, Thomas will be the man at PF.

Atlanta Sambos

Head Coach: Fred deBoer

Projected Scoring Avg: 97.62 ppg

New Owner to FBL

Projected Lineup:

C- Raef LaFrentz

PF- Rasheed Wallace

SF- Paul Pierce

SG- Cuttino Mobley

PG- Alvin Williams

B1- Mike Bibby

B2- Eddie Griffin

B3- Derek Anderson

The Sambos are built around Paul Pierce (their only true superstar) and a scrappy but unspectacular supporting cast.  Bibby's eventual return from injury will be eagerly awaited, because Alvin Williams is the worst starting point in the FBL.  Raef LaFrentz is going to get pushed around in a conference with Yao Ming, Shaq, and Duncan.  Has deBoer taken out extra insurance on Raef's ribs?  Rasheed Wallace will improve this team's fortunes greatly if he becomes eligible to play center.

West Coast Conference

San Diego Zoo

Head Coach: Brian Nocera

Projected Scoring Avg: 114.06 ppg

New Owner to FBL

Projected Lineup:

C- Elton Brand

PF- Karl Malone

SF- Richard Hamilton

SG- Jason Terry

PG- Baron Davis

B1- Brent Barry

B2- Keith Van Horn

B3- Mike Miller

Solid all around in that they don't have a main superstar, but a trio of potential all-stars: Karl Malone, Baron Davis and Elton Brand.  Based on projected PAR, Brand is the #2 center in the conference, Davis is the #2 PG, and Malone is the #2 PF.  Rip Hamilton is one of the weaker SFs in the conference, but trading away Finley was logical because Jason Terry fills a hole at SG.  They have the best overall talent in the division, but that doesn't say all too much.  The WCC should be wide open, and single games will make a lot of difference in the standings.

Astoria Chunks

Head Coach: Jason Leinwand

Projected Scoring Avg: 113.40 ppg

New Owner to FBL

Projected Lineup:

C- Kurt Thomas

PF- Antawn Jamison

SF- Drew Gooden

SG- Kobe Bryant

PG- Andre Miller

B1- Michael Olowokandi

B2- Richard Jefferson

B3- Caron Butler

Kobe Bryant and Andre Miller are the team leaders, and are the class of the guard combos in the WCC.  All-star Bryant has the potential to help this team to win the conference; he can single-handedly take over a game.  Gooden should be FBL Rookie of the Year.